Rape statistics: A clearer picture at last? Part 1: Adult rape.

Posted: February 3, 2014 in Uncategorized

I had the good fortune of coming across discussion on Facebook about one of my blog entries (the one before last, as it happens) in which I was accused of being a very angry man. It was put forward that that anger is a result of being rejected by feminism and not being sure where to place myself. It was put forward that my anger blinds me from seeing clearly and my resulting blogs lack any form of relevance and credit due to it.

Oh no, someone has disagreed with my blog and resorted to an ad hominem attack to discredit my views. Like that hasn’t happened before. There might have been a creditable refutation in there somewhere but I can’t remember it. Just to clarify, I have never seen myself as a feminist, my first-hand experiences with the movement have always been enough to convince me it’s not a movement I wanted to be part of. When I said I always thought I must be a feminist it was because I thought I believed in what they believed in – equality. The more I was around feminism (and the University system here is full of it) the more I realised it actually wasn’t at all. If I’m an angry man, so be it, I have plenty of reasons to be angry.

Anyway, back on point. It’s Monday night, I don’t normally write blogs on a Monday, but I’m still working through the list I had at the end of last week and I’m trying to get through them in case anything new comes up. This particular entry was number 5 of 5 but, due to aforementioned angry man syndrome, I’ve decided that, in an effort to present myself as more level-head and calm, so as not to offend anyone’s sensibilities, I’d move this one up the pecking order. No swearing, no ranting, no sense of anger, just calm, rational thought.

So, what could I possibly be writing a blog about that is likely to keep me calm and level-headed?

Yep, it’s rape! This is only part 1. Part 2 will be along in the next couple of days.

Again with the rape, seriously it’s pretty much the only topic I seem to cover recently. I think this is like entry number 6 on rape or something. Not that I’m complaining, the more we can do to raise awareness and tackle the crime of rape the better. The only difference being that I try and include all victims of rape, not just women. You don’t get that very often in mainstream articles. Sure, the odd mention here and there of male victims and false accusations, but they’re often footnotes in the discussions on wider problems – how women are being raped pretty much every second of every day.

Well, I came across this article the other day which is very interesting. If my beard was long enough I’d be stroking it right now while saying ‘Hmmmm.’

http://news.uk.msn.com/postcode-lottery-for-rape-cases

Let’s get this out the way first – I’ve spoken in the past about how statistics really aren’t that trustworthy without the original study being available. Seeing as that is not the case here I’m simply going to accept these figures as fact, especially as they have been compiled from police databases themselves and are likely to be as accurate as we’re ever going to get on rape.

Of course, no rape study would be complete without the obligatory focus on women. Whilst the article starts with this sentence:

‘A postcode lottery in the way rape cases are handled by police has been highlighted by figures showing wide variations between forces across England and Wales, it is claimed.’

Showing that this is, presumably, going to be dealing with ‘rape cases’ in general, not just against women, it then becomes unclear in its focus. The statistics seem to focus on all recorded adult and child rapes in the year to March 2013, but doesn’t distinguish between male and female, yet interviews groups largely associated with female victims. Whilst the data presented seems to be pretty impartial, the fact that Rape Crisis England (which, last time I checked, still promotes the 1 in 4 statistic) and End Violence Against Women are the groups interviewed, it does still imply that this is still a problem that affects women. No mention of men or boys being victims, though I am assuming they are included in the statistics of ‘adult rape’ and ‘child rape’. If they aren’t, if these statistics are simply focusing on female rape, well then that just shows the amount of focus that male victims have, doesn’t it? As there is no way of knowing, due to the lack of a link to the original data, I’m going to go positive and assume this is all rape, not just female.

First off, the statistics, as far as I can tell, finally debunk the mythic 1 in 4 number that pervades our society. I’m going to try some basic maths to try and work this out. You have to understand that I am absolutely terrible at maths, to the point that I had to re-sit my Maths GCSE years after leaving school, that’s how badly I did.

Right, the article states:

‘Among key contrasts, Northamptonshire Police had the highest rate of recorded rape at 34.8 per 100,000 adults in the year to March 2013, while Durham Police had the lowest at 9.8 per 100,000 adults. The average is 22 rapes recorded per 100,000 adults.’

If we take the average figure – 22 rapes per 100,000 adults. There are roughly 33 million living in the UK in 2012 (which would have been included in these statistics). If my maths is correct, if we times 100,000 by 10 to get 1 million, that leaves 220 rapes per million people. Times that 1 million by 33 to get 33 million and that 220 becomes 7,260. That’s the reported rapes. Lets says that, as feminists suggest, 90% of rapes go unreported, 90% of 7,260 is 6,534. Add those together and you have 13,794. That’s, in theory 13,794 rapes out of 30 million women and children living in the UK. These figures only deal with England and Wales.

I can’t find specific figures for England and Wales, but according to the site I got the data I’ve just used from (http://www.howmanyarethere.org/how-many-people-are-there-in-the-uk/) there are 7.7 million people in Northern Ireland and Scotland. Which means, if I split the figure in half for men and women (highly unscientific I know, but what else am I to do?), that becomes 3.3 million. Remove 3.3 million from the roughly 33 million women that live in the UK and we have, roughly, 30 million women and girls that live in England and Wales.

So, if I’ve got this right, and there’s every chance I haven’t, that means we have 13,794 rapes for 30 million women. Now, I’m no mathematician, that should be pretty clear by now, but 25% of 30 million is 7,500,000. That’s a rather large discrepancy, even if my maths is all over the place, I doubt I’m wrong by 6,437,000 odd. Is this cast-iron proof that, even taking into account the 90% unreported theory, 25% of the population are not, in fact, victims of rape. Now, I’m sure there’s someone out there who can counter this, possibly by saying that the 1 in 4 figure is over a woman’s lifetime, and unfortunately my maths is pretty much stretched beyond its limit at this point, but how many years would we have to had 13,000 odd women being raped before we reach the magical 1 in 4 number? And if the 1 in 4 number contains sexual assault as well as rape, are you seriously going to try and suggest that there are nearly 6 and a half million instances of sexual assault occurring, even if the figure does spread out over a number of years?

EDIT: typically, my maths was way off. Thanks to the lovely Jessica at I Don’t Need Feminism for highlighting my error. If we take 7,260 to be the number of reported rapes, then that makes them 10% of all actual rapes. if 90% go unreported we get a figure of 72,600, not 6,534. My mistake was taking 90% of 7,260, which just shows my grasp of maths is really poor.

Even so, 72,600 is still way off in terms of the 1 in 4 number. I did another calculation to try and figure out just how to get the 1 in 4 number. If we take it as 72,600 actual rapes per year, and 30 million women in England and Wales, then we must take 25% of that 30 million (7,500,000) and divide by the number of ‘actual’ rapes, which give us 103 (rounded down).

That means if we are consistently experiencing 72,600 ‘actual’ rapes a year it will take 103 years for 25% of women to have been raped. And that’s not including any women who are raped more than once. We know those numbers are not consistent. Plus, the feminist statistics tend to spread from the age of 16 to 59, which is a span of 43 years. Whichever way you look it, there’s no way that 25% of women get raped in their lifetime. (10/2/14)

So, that’s, in my eyes, possibly the most important thing to come out of this article, proof that the 1 in 4 statistic is on shaky ground at best. If someone can come and counter that figure with something more scientific then please do.

Let’s make this clear, in absolutely no way am I trying to undermine rape victims by making them out to be less than they are, I wouldn’t do that. I’m simply trying to paint an accurate picture of the real statistics so we can lose this culture of fear and hysteria we have about the prevalence of rape.

Also, something else to consider, according to the article this is, as far as we are lead to believe, all recorded rapes in the country. So that includes male rape as well. If we factor that in, then that number will drop even lower, therefore dropping the percentage of females raped as well. Maybe I’m missing something, but it seems pretty clear that the 1 in 4 statistic, even if taken to absolute worst-case-scenario, can’t exist with the figures this article is claiming. Of course, I’ve used the average number of rapes, it might be higher in some counties, but the 1 in 4 number is presented as an average, so I think I’m good.

Another interesting statistic is the ‘no-crime’ rate. Now, I’m not sure if that includes false rape allegations where the victim has stated that they lied, or whether it’s just a recorded rape that was downgraded due to lack of evidence or something similar. However, the fact is that, no-crime rapes are actually a lot higher than the feminists claim:

‘And Lincolnshire Police had the highest “no-criming” rate for adult rapes – that is, an offence initially recorded as rape, but then declassified – at 33%, compared with Cumbria, which had the lowest no-criming rate at 3%. The average no-criming rate is 12%.’

It says in the report that they were initially recorded as rape, but then declassified. Again, I can’t be sure if admitted false rape allegations are included in that or not. But, let’s assume they aren’t, it’s really clear to see that rape is a hard crime to prosecute. Why were they declassified? Was it lack of evidence, a shaky witness testimony, proven to be something other than rape, despite the initial acceptance? I don’t know, it’s unclear without more information. What is worth noting is that the average is 12%, still much higher than the number feminists like to report.

Worryingly, we do get a little bit of feminist propaganda sweeping in with this statement:

‘Katie Russell, spokeswoman for charity Rape Crisis England, said releasing the data reflected a commitment to transparency and scrutiny of police practice.’

‘But she added: “Nonetheless, Rape Crisis is still extremely concerned by the persistently high levels of ‘no-criming’ today’s data reveals, as well as by the huge disparities in statistics between different police forces.”’

So, the levels of no-crime rapes aren’t representative of the alarming amount of false rape claims (as high as 33% in one county) or even perhaps a suggestion that women’s original claims of rape have been disproven and the charge dropped to something lesser (perhaps sexual assault), leading to the question, again, of ‘what is consent’, but rather evidence of the systemic victim blaming within society that disparages victims from coming forward. Once again, an organisation manages to take a statistic and, rather than applying some logic and common sense, automatically plays the victim card. Rather than ‘let’s see what’s causing those particular crimes to be declassified’ we get ‘OMG, look at how much we victim blame, look at how little women are believed.’

For the record, here is the Rape Crisis website:

http://www.rapecrisis.org.uk/

Notice anything strange? Yep, the front page is loaded with images of women, but not a single man. What does that say about rape in England, that only women can be victims of rape? Yes, apparently so.

Also, here is the ‘myths and realities page’:

http://www.rapecrisis.org.uk/mythsampfacts2.php

Now, their results come from January 2013 (interestingly, the set of data I’m using here includes data leading up to March 2013, so there’s a little bit of crossover), so it’s possible they’re more up to date. However, their statistic of 85,000 is massively different from the 13,000 suggested by the article this blog focuses on.

It’s becoming clear why we need to be absolutely clear and transparent on rape statistics as they seem to vary so wildly from one set of data to the next. This is exactly the reason why promoting such myths as the 1in 4 statistic is so damaging to actual rape cases. It creates a culture of fear and misunderstanding around an already misunderstood and under-reported crime. When official figures fly in the face of the feminist statistics, it leads me to question how the 1 in 4 figure still exists and is believed. It simply doesn’t seem to exist. Luckily, Rape Crisis do link to the study they took those figures from. When I get time, I’ll read it through and, if I need to, perhaps create an addendum to this blog. As it stands, I’m sticking with the article above.

We then get an interesting statistic on the ‘sanction-detention- rate which, as the article puts it:

‘that is the number of recorded adult rapes that result in a caution or charge’

The full quote reads:

‘Elsewhere, the data reveals Durham Police had the highest “sanction detection” rate, that is the number of recorded adult rapes that result in a caution or charge, at 32%, while Warwickshire had the lowest at 6%. The average sanction detection rate was 18%’

Another statistic that shows the actual conviction rate of rapists is a lot higher than feminists claim, reaching as high as 32% in some cases. That might seem like a small number, but I’ve seen feminists claim that only 6% of rapists are ever brought to justice amongst many other ludicrously small figures. Despite what people might think, people are being convicted or, at the very least, cautioned, for the crimes they’ve committed. That might seem like a low number, but don’t forget some counties have a ‘no-crime’ statistic of 33%, so you have to take all the figures into account. If we take the highest ‘no-crime’ rate of 33% and the highest ‘sanction-detention’ rate of 32%, that equals 65% of rapes that are dealt with in the UK in some counties. If we take the lowest of those two numbers we get 9% total, which is more in line with the feminist figures. The average is 30% total, which is still higher than I’ve seen feminists claim. Also worth remembering, this is the total amount of adult rapes, according to this report, which must include males, so we aren’t solely looking at female victimisation.

Of course, numbers vary wildly, and there’s no way I can say that rape is comprehensively being dealt with across the board. The point is very simple, though, it is not a gendered crime, it happens to both sexes, and it is being dealt with in some areas of the country, to a much higher degree than we are told about.

We then get, perhaps, the most interesting line, given to us far below the original statistics about ‘no-crimes’:

‘A recorded crime can be “no-crimed” where additional verifiable information determines no crime has been committed.’

If this suggests anything, it’s that the crime, with ‘verifiable information’, has been proven to not have been committed. Does this mean deliberate false allegations? Again, it’s unclear. For all we know this could be a woman who is convinced she has been raped but, on reflection, the law decides she hasn’t. It doesn’t mean she is any less victimised or scarred by what happened, it just means it wasn’t classified as rape.

Of course, this isn’t acceptable for our Rape Crisis spokesperson:

‘Ms Sharpling said the HMIC report on Jimmy Savile revealed difficulties in rape victims coming forward to police and “lack of confidence” was one of the issues.

She added there may be a range of “other explanations” for the disparities between forces but questions over disbelief had to be raised.’

So she admits that there may be ‘other explanations’ for the differences between forces, but still thinks the old adage that no-one believes a woman when she claims she’s been raped is the top reason.

As horrific as it has been, the Jimmy Saville scandal has been one of the best things to happen to this country in terms of reporting sexual abuse. Now the floodgates have opened it means people are more confident about coming forward to report a rape or sexual assault. Of course, it also opens the floodgates for those people who think they’ve been raped or assaulted and end up putting a man through the court of public opinion, ruining him even if he’s found innocent.

Instead of resorting straight to the victimhood and asking why women aren’t believed when they’re raped, perhaps we could focus some attention of why it’s so hard to prove a rape happened. We do live in a culture of fear and intimidation and uncertainty when it comes to rape, but that’s because we aren’t allowed to question a rape accuser’s testimony. If we hear on the news a woman claim she’s been raped, or sexually assaulted, and we even try to explain it, or apply some form of common sense and logic to it, we are automatically assumed to be rape-apologists, rape-deniers, misogynists and all other manner of sub-human scum. The Ohio rape is testament to that, the idea that simply because a woman reported a rape she should automatically be believed, regardless of any other evidence to the contrary. As horrific a crime as rape is, we can’t let it become a crime of hysteria. By that I mean we can’t simply let any accusation stand without merit or reason, and ignore the context of the situation.

I realise that in those last few paragraphs I’ve completely ignored men, but rape in England is so focused on being a female crime (as evidenced by the Rape Crisis website), and those statistics, despite appearing to be gender neutral, are so slyly implied to be about female victims that I wanted to focus on the idea of women automatically being victims.

Rape is a horrible crime, having those statistics doesn’t change that. It is under-reported, some people do victim blame, some people do go down the route of not believing the accuser, but what is apparent amongst all of that is that at least women have people trying to change that viewpoint. What do men have? How many charities are trying to clarify and promote male safety and male victimisation when it comes to rape? Judging by the people chosen to contribute to this article it’s not many.

Yes, those statistics prove that rape is still a problem. But, to some degree, they are statistics of only one crime, one crime in a country full of crime. I would like to see the ratio of arrests and convictions for people who have physically assaulted others on nights out, I would like to see the figures for people murdered vs people convicted of murders. By only seeing these statistics, rape statistics, we are automatically given no point of reference. We see 100% as good, and 0% as bad, therefore 12% of ‘sanction-detention’ seems horrendous, but how high is that figure for murder, or physical assault, or any other number of crimes that leave the victim afraid and scarred.

That’s it for part 1. The article goes on to focus on Child rape, which I will cover in another blog as this one is far too long already.

What can I take away from this? Well, it hasn’t changed my opinion on rape, it’s still a horrible crime that is under-reported. But, the focus of female victims only is detrimental to male victims, the focus on ‘no-crime’ as worrying instead of analysing why those statistics are as high in some places as they are is to automatically place victimhood on women. If the ‘no-crime’ statistics are that high, is it perhaps time to educate women on exactly what does and does not constitute rape?

Controversial, I know. Don’t teach women not to get raped, teach them to recognise what is and isn’t rape before accusing an innocent man.

I await the pitchforks!

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